Irish Unification Referendum Should Not Become 'A Sequel to Brexit', Analysts Alert

A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.

That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."

New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion

The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.

Absence of Serious Debate

Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage with the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.

Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."

Appeal for Broader Discussion

Westminster must engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."